As September begins, markets are bracing for what hosts Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak describe as an 'elephanty' turn in the final four months of the year. In Episode 816 of DH Unplugged, titled 'Strikes, Spikes, Hikes,' the duo dissects a confluence of factors rattling investors: renewed U.S. bombing of Iran, a sharp spike in crude oil, rising bond yields, and a fresh wave of corporate winners and losers. The episode, published September 1, 2026, frames classic September volatility against a backdrop of eroding institutional trust and a Federal Reserve caught between political pressure and a wobbly labor market.
Crude oil has surged roughly 13% in two weeks to about $91.80, with diesel crack spreads flashing inflation warnings. This spike, driven by geopolitical tensions, threatens to feed through to consumer prices just as the Fed contemplates its next policy move. The hosts point to the administration's mixed signals on Iran, noting President Trump's recent threat that Iran will be 'totally wiped out as a country' if it retaliates again. Horowitz criticizes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, saying, 'The administration is the boy who cried wolf right now,' and adding that 'Bessent has really gotten a little bit crazed trying to manipulate the markets.' Dvorak connects these dots to bond yields and the dollar, arguing that currencies, equities, and even private valuations ultimately rest on one thing: trust. 'It's a series of very large trust factors,' he warns, suggesting that tariff escalation echoing Smoot-Hawley would signal that America no longer believes it can compete.
On the corporate front, the episode highlights a stark divergence among retailers and tech giants. Dell issued blowout guidance, projecting fiscal 2027 EPS near $25.50 versus $18.99 prior, on the back of 40% data center share. Nvidia is reportedly pursuing a $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, though the hosts also discuss the fallout between Jensen Huang and Sam Altman. Conversely, Dick's Sporting Goods plunged roughly 30% as Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%, and Target faced a Halloween clown costume backlash, underscoring brand-management landmines in today's social media age.
The hosts also delve into government equity stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals, and the lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement. Horowitz, who discloses a personal short position in Intel, questions why Washington gets discounted shares that retail investors never see. Dvorak contrasts the U.S. approach with China's state-owned enterprise model and flags GLM 5.3 Flash from Chinese lab Z.ai, reportedly trained without a single Nvidia chip. The conversation also touches on LEGO's 21% first-half revenue jump and the baseball-card casino economy drawing scrutiny from Japanese regulators.
Looking ahead, Friday's August payrolls, ADP, JOLTS, and ISM data will provide fresh signals on the labor market and economic momentum. With the Fed walking a tightrope between political pressure and inflation concerns, the hosts underscore that the coming weeks will test investor confidence. As Horowitz and Dvorak navigate the noise, they remain skeptical of official narratives, urging listeners to focus on the underlying trust factors that drive markets. Episode 816 is available now at DHUnplugged.com and via Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music/Podcasts.
