A new risk calculator accurately estimated the likelihood of adults developing dementia within ten years after a stroke, according to a preliminary study to be presented at the American Stroke Association's International Stroke Conference 2026. The tool, developed by researchers at McMaster University and ICES, stratifies patients into five levels of dementia risk based on factors such as age, disability, diabetes, depression, and stroke type.
Lead study author Raed A. Joundi, M.D., D.Phil., M.Sc., noted that about 1 in 3 adults develop dementia after a stroke over the long term. This tool, which predicts dementia rates closely matching observed rates, may help enroll high-risk patients in clinical trials focused on reducing long-term dementia risk. The study used health records for nearly 50,000 adults hospitalized with stroke from the Ontario Stroke Registry and validated the risk model in a separate sample from the Ontario Stroke Audit.
For individuals with transient ischemic attack (TIA), top risk factors included older age, needing help with daily activities before TIA, diabetes, depression, cognitive symptoms on presentation, and any disability at discharge. For stroke patients, key factors were older age, being female, diabetes, depression, intracerebral hemorrhage (compared to ischemic stroke), cognitive symptoms during hospitalization, or greater disability at discharge. Those in the highest risk category had a 50% probability of dementia over 10 years, compared to 5% in the lowest category.
American Stroke Association volunteer expert Deborah A. Levine, M.D., M.P.H., said, “This well-done study provides a useful tool that could make research faster, so new treatments can get to stroke survivors sooner.” The authors emphasize that the tool is currently intended for research and clinical trial stratification, not clinical decision-making. They highlight the need for more attention to dementia prevention after stroke, as dementia is more common than recurrent stroke over the long term.
Study limitations include lack of data on dementia type and absence of imaging scans for detailed stroke characteristics. The findings are considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal. More information about the study can be found in the abstract in the American Stroke Association International Stroke Conference 2026 Online Program Planner. Additional resources on stroke and brain health are available at stroke.org.
