When Federal Reserve officials discuss inflation, they often focus on core inflation rather than overall inflation. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices because those categories can swing dramatically due to events such as geopolitical conflicts, weather or supply disruptions. By filtering out those short-term spikes, policymakers get a clearer picture of whether inflation is spreading across the broader economy.
In a speech this week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rising core inflation—not just higher gasoline prices—is what concerns him most. If core inflation remains elevated for several months, the Federal Reserve could consider raising interest rates to slow spending and bring inflation closer to its long-term 2% target. Because Fed policy influences borrowing costs throughout the economy, changes in core inflation can ultimately affect everything from mortgage rates and car loans to credit cards and savings yields.
Core inflation measures price changes excluding food and energy because those costs tend to fluctuate sharply from month to month. Federal Reserve policymakers watch core inflation to gauge whether price increases are becoming widespread throughout the economy. Persistent increases in core inflation can influence interest-rate decisions that affect mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and savings accounts.
PocketChange Fact: Core inflation excludes direct changes in food and energy prices, but that does not mean those costs disappear from the measure. Higher oil, shipping and production costs can eventually filter into the prices of other goods and services included in core inflation.
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