Two years after Tropical Storm Helene struck Western North Carolina, new data reveals that Buncombe County has undergone the most dramatic reversal in domestic migration of any large county in the United States. According to an analysis by Asheville-based Dry Ridge Moving, the county saw a net loss of 2,056 residents to other parts of the country in the year following the storm, compared to a net gain of 1,768 in the year before. This swing of 13.7 net movers per 1,000 residents is the largest among the 620 U.S. counties with at least 100,000 residents, surpassing the next closest county, Craighead County, Arkansas, which had a swing of 12.1. The shift contributed to Buncombe's first annual population decline since at least 2000, with Census estimates showing 1,810 fewer residents in July 2025 than a year earlier.
The housing market has been profoundly affected. Active home listings in Buncombe County more than doubled from 886 in August 2024 to 1,799 in August 2026, a 103 percent increase, while listings nationally rose only 25 percent over the same period. The median time a home spent on the market increased from 54 to 78 days, and the typical home value fell 5.6 percent between September 2024 and July 2026, even as national home values rose 1.1 percent. These figures, drawn from Realtor.com and Zillow data, suggest a cooling market as demand weakened following the storm.
The local workforce has also contracted. Buncombe County's civilian labor force stood at 135,287 in July 2026, down 5.8 percent from July 2024, while the statewide labor force declined only 1.2 percent. The unemployment rate, which spiked immediately after the storm, was 3.4 percent in July 2026. The shrinking labor force could hamper economic recovery and strain local businesses.
While Buncombe County struggled, the broader region continued to grow, albeit more slowly. Across 23 North Carolina counties declared disaster areas after Helene, net domestic migration fell 54.5 percent, from 9,183 to 4,180, but remained positive. Henderson County actually added 1,089 residents. IRS data from tax years 2022 and 2023 shows that Florida was the leading source of new households for several counties, including Buncombe, while South Carolina was the top destination for those leaving.
The study's author, Dry Ridge Moving, notes that Census estimates are revised annually and may not fully capture temporary displacement, and that 2026 labor force figures are preliminary. The next county population estimates, expected in spring 2027, will reveal whether the migration reversal persists. For now, the data underscores the storm's lasting impact on one of North Carolina's most populous counties. The full study, including methodology and downloadable data, is available on the Dry Ridge Moving website.
