Hong Kong's merchandise exports surged 53.4% year-on-year to HK$641.1 billion in June 2026, according to data released by the Census and Statistics Department. For the first half of the year, total exports reached HK$3,416.0 billion, up 39.1% compared with the same period in 2025. The robust growth was underpinned by strong demand for electronics amid the global acceleration of artificial intelligence adoption.
Bruce Pang, Director of Research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), noted that year-on-year growth rates for exports to Asia, the Chinese Mainland, and the United States all accelerated in June compared with May. However, effective July 24, 2026, the United States imposed new tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 trading partners, including the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong, which face a 12.5% tariff. These new tariffs replace the previous temporary 10% universal tariffs that expired on the same date.
While the tariff increase will affect Hong Kong's exports to the United States, exemptions remain for certain electronic products, which account for the majority of Hong Kong's exports to the U.S. As a result, the impact of the new tariffs on Hong Kong's export performance is likely limited. Additionally, the anticipated meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders in September, along with continued bilateral dialogue, may foster a more accommodative trade environment.
Looking ahead, global business prospects hinge on developments in the Middle East. Renewed conflicts have pushed oil prices higher, and rising inflationary pressures have prompted several central banks to tighten monetary policy. If tensions persist and more central banks pivot toward tighter policy, the global economy and end-market demand could slow. Pang added that Hong Kong's merchandise exports may see moderating growth in the coming months due to a gradual steadying of the technology upcycle, an easing global economy, and the high-base effect from last year. Nevertheless, the HKTDC upholds its forecast that full-year exports in 2026 will register growth of over 20%.
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